Jefferies released a research report stating that while maintaining Chow Tai Fook's (01929) “buy” rating, the target price was reduced from HK$17.02 to HK$15.88.
The bank believes that Chow Tai Fook's management strategy is to improve operating profit margins through years of rebranding, and believes it is the right direction. However, considering the relatively weak consumer sentiment in the Mainland and Hong Kong markets, the market and the bank's net profit forecast for Chow Tai ?$#@$ did not take into account strong sales growth and profit margin expansion. Currently, the stock's valuation is equivalent to predicting a price-earnings ratio of 12 times the 2025 fiscal year and a dividend rate of 5%, which is not considered expensive.
Considering the year-end operating data for the fiscal year ending at the end of March, the bank increased Chow Tai FY 2024's earnings forecast by 4%, but decreased by 2% and 6% respectively in the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years. The bank's model does not take into account hedging losses for the second half of the fiscal year ending at the end of March; considering the rise in gold prices, the bank estimates that hedging revenue may be as high as 1.7 billion yuan, but the data is only recorded in terms of market value. Assuming that the price of gold remains at the current level, up to the end of September this year and the first half of the current fiscal year, the increase in gold prices is expected to help gross margins.