Even though Venustech Group Inc. (SZSE:002439) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We looked deeper into the numbers and found that shareholders might be concerned with some underlying weaknesses.
A Closer Look At Venustech Group's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Venustech Group has an accrual ratio of 0.25 for the year to December 2023. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥552m despite its profit of CN¥741.1m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥552m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not the end of the story. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. Venustech Group expanded the number of shares on issue by 29% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Venustech Group's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
How Is Dilution Impacting Venustech Group's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?
Venustech Group's net profit dropped by 7.8% per year over the last three years. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 18%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 18% over the same period. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.
Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Venustech Group can grow EPS persistently. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥109m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Venustech Group doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
Our Take On Venustech Group's Profit Performance
In conclusion, Venustech Group's weak accrual ratio suggested its statutory earnings have been inflated by the unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Venustech Group'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. If you want to do dive deeper into Venustech Group, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Venustech Group.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.