Analysts review Harley-Davidson stock price target ahead of earnings

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It is a sound like no other.

If you listen very carefully, you might hear 120 years of history and a sense of loyalty that comes awfully close to cult status.

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We're talking about the sound of a Harley-Davidson  (HOG)  motorcycle, a deep-throated roar so distinctive that the Milwaukee company tried to trademark it in 1994.

"Harley-Davidson's most recent endeavor to secure trademark protection is not only its most unconventional, it is also arguably, the most unusual and provocative trademark application ever filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office," Michael B. Sapherstein wrote for the Boston College Intellectual Property & Technology Forum in 1998.

The company's trademark attorney said the Harley’s V-Twin engine design resulted in a syncopated, uneven idle which, when simulated verbally, sounds like “potato-potato-potato."

However, while Harley-Davidson was saying, "Potato," several other motorcycle brands said, "No way," so the hog maker eventually withdrew the application in 2000.

"There was found to be no company or commentator, other than those on Harley's payroll, who supported the grant of Harley's trademark," Sapherstein wrote.

Still, Harley was able to find a silver lining in the exhaust clouds.

Harley-Davidson is scheduled to report earnings on April 25.<p>Harley Davidson</p>
Harley-Davidson is scheduled to report earnings on April 25.

Harley Davidson

CEO: 'Harley has commanding leadership position'

“If our customers know the sound cannot be imitated, that’s good enough for me and for Harley-Davidson,” Joanne Bischmann, the company’s then vice president, told the Los Angeles Times in 2000.

Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Thursday, April 25, before the market open. Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimate the company earned $1.51 per share on $1.35 billion in sales.

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A year earlier, Harley-Davidson posted earnings of $2.04 per share on $1.56 billion in revenue, beating Wall Street's call for $1.39 per share on $1.36 billion.

Three years ago, Harley-Davidson unveiled The Hardwire, the company's 2021-2025 strategic plan, which targets long-term profitable growth and shareholder value and "aims to enhance its position as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world."

The company reported fourth-quarter results in February. Global motorcycle shipments were down 13% due to dealers maintaining lower inventory amid slow demand. Retail sales globally were down 11%, led by a 9% fall in North America.

"We recognize that the overall macro environment, including high interest rates, add complexity to our customers' decisions to purchase discretionary products," CEO Jochen Zeitz said during the company's earnings call with analysts.

Zeitz said that Harley-Davidson continued to outperform the market with share gains in its core categories, as touring reached over 75% market share in the U.S., and large cruisers clocked in at over 80% market share.

"Despite perceptions to the contrary, we continue to have a commanding leadership position in these core profit focus segments, well ahead of all our competitors taken together and demonstrated for a strong gross margin performance," Zeitz said.

He told analysts that the company's Grand American Touring category "was born out of the unique experience of the American highway and was invented by Harley-Davidson."

Harley analyst notes 'fiercely loyal customer base'

"Few products are as iconic and as connected to one specific brand," Zeitz said. "Put simply, touring is the heart of Harley-Davidson, our mission of timeless pursuit of adventure."

In his 1998 report, Sapherstein discussed the company's devoted customer base.

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"If motorcyclists are a unique breed, Harley-Davidson motorcyclists must be considered a cult unto themselves," he said. "They have transformed the hobby of motorcycling into a lifestyle, replete with clubs, clothing, and a distinct 'biker culture.'"

No argument there. The company said the Harley Owners Group (H.O.G.) has more than 1,400 local chapters worldwide.

And that allegiance is not lost upon Morgan Stanley analysts.

On April 23, the firm assumed coverage of Harley-Davidson with an overweight rating and a $50 stock price target.

Harley-Davidson is an iconic brand with leading market share in the U.S. motorcycle industry and "a fiercely loyal customer base," the firm said.

Analysts said that a refocused strategy under new leadership and strong capital allocation discipline will lead to an upside to consensus earnings estimates.

Earlier this month, analysts at DA Davidson boosted their price target on Harley-Davidson to $49 from $42 per share, reiterating a buy rating on the shares.

The firm highlighted the motorcycle maker's continued retail momentum from February through March as a key reason for the updated target.

Analysts took a conservative stance on the company's earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2024, setting them at $1.40 per share,

However, despite this cautious forecast, DA Davidson expressed heightened confidence in the potential for Harley-Davidson's U.S. retail sales to surpass expectations in the first quarter.

The shares at last check Wednesday were trading off 0.7% at $39.45.

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