Vertex Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTNR) has rebounded strongly over the last week, with the share price soaring 58%. But that isn't much consolation for the painful drop we've seen in the last year. To wit, the stock has dropped 80% over the last year. So it's not that amazing to see a bit of a bounce. The real question is whether the company can turn around its fortunes. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
The recent uptick of 58% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
Vertex Energy wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
In the last year Vertex Energy saw its revenue grow by 14%. While that may seem decent it isn't great considering the company is still making a loss. Even so you could argue that it's surprising that the share price has tanked 80%. Clearly the market was expecting better, and this may blow out projections of profitability. But if it will make money, albeit later than previously believed, this could be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Vertex Energy had a tough year, with a total loss of 80%, against a market gain of about 21%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.8% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Vertex Energy is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...
We will like Vertex Energy better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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