The recent earnings posted by Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002518) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.
Zooming In On Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology recorded an accrual ratio of 0.24. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥334m, which is significantly less than its profit of CN¥845.5m. Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. One positive for Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology's Profit Performance
Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.