According to the official WeChat account of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, according to China Automobile Association data (enterprise billing volume, non-terminal actual sales volume, same below), in March 2024, China's truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold a total of 4051 thousand vehicles, a sharp increase of 88% over February this year, and also achieved year-on-year growth, with an increase of 4%.
Among these, the heavy truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold 115,800 units, a sharp increase of 94% over February and a slight increase of 0.3% year on year. The year-on-year increase was corrected last month (-23%), achieving both month-on-month and year-on-year increases.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report saying that the Beijing Auto Show is about to open, and a large number of new models and intelligent empowerment are expected to boost terminal sales and drive the vehicle market. Currently, it is still a long window. Domestic commercial vehicle exports of 78,000 vehicles showed impressive performance of +31% year-on-year in March. It is recommended to focus on economic recovery, policy-driven recovery in the heavy truck industry, and structural opportunities for heavy gas trucks.
Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the combination of factors such as the continued widening of oil and gas price differences, lower freight rates, and gradual diversification of gas vehicle product types has driven the rapid increase in gas vehicle cost performance and customer acceptance; at the same time, domestic natural gas supply is abundant, gas station construction is accelerating in various regions, and the multidimensional catalysis of supply/demand/policies is expected, and the penetration rate of heavy gas trucks is expected to increase rapidly from 2024 to 2025.
Heavy truck exports have shown strong resilience, sales have broken through steady growth, and the CIS, Middle East/Africa/Southeast Asia, etc., the cost performance advantages of independent heavy trucks are prominent, and the overseas market share continues to rise.
Furthermore, the trade-in policy is worth looking forward to. Currently, the number of domestic four-tier heavy trucks and below is still high. The policy's strength is expected to stimulate incremental demand and is optimistic.
Dongwu Securities estimates that the domestic heavy truck industry's wholesale sales volume from 2024 to 2025 will be 107/1.25 million vehicles, respectively, +17.3%/+17.1% year-on-year.
Heavy truck related sector companies:
Focus on strong α (natural gas heavy trucks benefit) + performance delivery with high certainty varieties: Weichai Power (02338), Sinotruk (03808)