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Paycom Software, Inc.'s (NYSE:PAYC) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 19 13:11

Paycom Software, Inc.'s (NYSE:PAYC) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Paycom Software certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:PAYC Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry April 19th 2024
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Paycom Software.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Paycom Software's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 22% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 139% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 11% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's curious that Paycom Software's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Paycom Software's P/E

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Paycom Software currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Paycom Software with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Paycom Software. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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