Jinwu Financial News | Goldman Sachs reports that AIA (01299) will release operating data for the first quarter before the opening of the market on April 29. It is expected that the value of the new business will maintain strong growth. It is expected to increase 23% at a fixed exchange rate and 19% at the real exchange rate, mainly driven by strong growth in Hong Kong, the Mainland and Thailand.
According to the bank, its stock price has fallen 28% since announcing its 2023 results. The current price is equivalent to 1.5 times the market account ratio forecast for this year, 1.2 times and 1.3 times the European and US life insurance industry, respectively. I believe this reflects investors' concerns about shareholder return policies and the growth performance of the mainland business. The bank believes that the company needs to disclose more future shareholder returns and the impact of interest rate cuts on mainland business.
The bank expects a CAGR of 11% of after-tax operating profit from 2024 to 2026, with a total shareholder return of 5.2 billion US dollars this year (taking into account dividends and repurchases), which means a yield of 7.7%, or short-term support for stock prices. Considering that risk and return became more attractive after stock prices fell back, the bank maintained AIA's “buy” rating and continued to be on the convinced purchase list, with a target price of HK$98.