Taylor Morrison Home Corporation's (NYSE:TMHC) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.5x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Taylor Morrison Home has been very sluggish. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Taylor Morrison Home's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 23%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 281% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 0.5% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we are not surprised that Taylor Morrison Home is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of Taylor Morrison Home's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Taylor Morrison Home that you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.