National Fuel Gas Company's (NYSE:NFG) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.8x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for National Fuel Gas as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Is There Any Growth For National Fuel Gas?
National Fuel Gas' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 27%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is not materially different.
In light of this, it's peculiar that National Fuel Gas' P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Key Takeaway
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of National Fuel Gas' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide more support to the share price.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for National Fuel Gas that you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on National Fuel Gas, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.