Advertisement
Singapore markets close in 7 hours 16 minutes
  • Straits Times Index

    3,284.15
    +2.10 (+0.06%)
     
  • Nikkei

    38,422.35
    +487.59 (+1.29%)
     
  • Hang Seng

    17,843.44
    +96.53 (+0.54%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    8,147.03
    +7.20 (+0.09%)
     
  • Bitcoin USD

    62,955.66
    -677.18 (-1.06%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,341.69
    -9.80 (-0.72%)
     
  • S&P 500

    5,116.17
    +16.21 (+0.32%)
     
  • Dow

    38,386.09
    +146.43 (+0.38%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    15,983.08
    +55.18 (+0.35%)
     
  • Gold

    2,346.10
    -11.60 (-0.49%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    82.49
    -0.14 (-0.17%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    4.6140
    -0.0550 (-1.18%)
     
  • FTSE Bursa Malaysia

    1,587.69
    +5.03 (+0.32%)
     
  • Jakarta Composite Index

    7,155.78
    -7,036.08 (-49.58%)
     
  • PSE Index

    6,769.64
    0.00 (0.00%)
     

Mondelez International's (NASDAQ:MDLZ) investors will be pleased with their decent 47% return over the last five years

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 31% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 6.2% in the last year.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Mondelez International

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

ADVERTISEMENT

During five years of share price growth, Mondelez International achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 6% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

We know that Mondelez International has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Mondelez International, it has a TSR of 47% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Mondelez International shareholders are down 4.0% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Mondelez International better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Mondelez International you should know about.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.