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Is Weakness In LKQ Corporation (NASDAQ:LKQ) Stock A Sign That The Market Could Be Wrong Given Its Strong Financial Prospects?

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 15 06:51

It is hard to get excited after looking at LKQ's (NASDAQ:LKQ) recent performance, when its stock has declined 4.4% over the past month. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Particularly, we will be paying attention to LKQ's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for LKQ is:

15% = US$944m ÷ US$6.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.15.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

LKQ's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

At first glance, LKQ seems to have a decent ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 15% the company's ROE looks quite decent. This certainly adds some context to LKQ's moderate 19% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing LKQ's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 21% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth
NasdaqGS:LKQ Past Earnings Growth April 15th 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is LKQ fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is LKQ Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

LKQ's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 25% (implying that it retains 75% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

While LKQ has seen growth in its earnings, it only recently started to pay a dividend. It is most likely that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 28%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that LKQ's future ROE will be 15% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that LKQ's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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