Great Wall Securities pointed out that the technical barriers for precision speed reducers are relatively high, and leading overseas manufacturers have a first-mover advantage. In the future, as domestic technology gradually breaks through, and at the same time, China's overall precision reducer market is in short supply, there is great potential to replace domestic precision reducers.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Great Wall Securities released a research report saying that according to the forecast of the China Business Industry Research Institute, China's humanoid robot market is estimated at an average compound annual growth rate of 30% from 2023 to 2030. By 2030, China's humanoid robot market is expected to reach about 870 billion yuan, and the accelerated industrialization of humanoid robots is expected to open up sufficient market space for precision speed reducers. The technical barriers of precision reducers are relatively high, and leading overseas manufacturers have a first-mover advantage. In the future, with the gradual breakthroughs in domestic technology, and at the same time, China's overall precision reducer market is in short supply. Domestic replacement of precision reducers has great potential, and the domestic replacement process is expected to accelerate in the future.
Related targets: Tuobang Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ), Green Harmonics (688017.SH), Double Ring Drive (002472.SZ), Zhongda (002896.SZ), Guomao (603915.SH), Haozhi Electromechanical (300503.SZ), Wuzhou Xinchun (603667.SH), Changsheng Bearing (300718.SZ), Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837.SZ), Fengli Intelligence (301368.SZ).
The main views of Great Wall Securities are as follows:
Speed reducer: a key component of the transmission system, rich in downstream applications
Reducers can be divided into general purpose reducers, special speed reducers, and precision reducers. Among them, general purpose reducers are mainly small to medium sized, modular, serialized, and widely used; special reducers are generally large and oversized, and require specialized customization according to different application scenarios; precision reducers are light in weight, easy to control and have high power, and are mainly used in robotics, CNC machine tools and other industries.
Downstream applications of speed reducers are abundant, and can be used in lifting and transportation, cement building materials, robots, heavy mining, metallurgy, etc. According to statistics from the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, as of 2022, among downstream applications of speed reducers in China, lifting transportation, cement building materials, and robots are the top three application markets, accounting for 25%, 15%, and 11% respectively.
Precision speed reducers: essential in humanoid robots
Compared with traditional speed reducers, precision reducers have smaller return gaps, higher accuracy, longer service life, and are widely used in high-end fields such as robots and CNC machine tools. Precision reducers can be divided into harmonic reducers, RV reducers, precision planetary reducers, etc.
1) Harmonic reducer: High motion accuracy, large transmission ratio, and small transmission inertia. At the same output torque, the size can be reduced to 1/3 of other reducers, and the weight can be reduced by 1/2. It is mainly used in light load fields such as robot arms, wrists, or hands.
2) RV reducers: Generally, they use a two-stage transmission structure, composed of the front stage of a planetary gear reducer and the rear stage of an cycloid reducer. They have a high load, large transmission range, long life, stable accuracy, high efficiency, and smooth transmission. They are generally used in positions with heavy loads such as the seat, arm, and shoulder in multi-joint robots.
3) Precision planetary reducer: Simple structure, better rigidity and wear resistance. It is mostly used for rectangular coordinate robots and traditional industrial automation.
Overall, for the main indicators of speed reducers: in terms of transmission efficiency, precision planetary reducers are the best, followed by RV reducers, and harmonic reducers rank third; in terms of transmission accuracy, precision planetary reducers are still the best, and RV reducers are comparable to harmonic reducers; in terms of transmission ratio, RV reducers and harmonic reducers are slightly superior to precision planetary reducers.
Precision speed reducers benefit from humanoid robots, and the market space is vast, and domestic replacement is imperative
Great Wall Securities pointed out that humanoid robots are expected to increase in volume, further opening up market space for precision speed reducers. Take Tesla's OptimusGen2 as an example. It uses 14 rotary actuators and a harmonic speed reducer. According to the Head Panther Research Institute, the value of speed reducers in humanoid robots will reach 13% by 2030. According to the forecast of the China Business Industry Research Institute, China's humanoid robot market is estimated at a compound annual growth rate of 30% from 2023 to 2030. It is estimated that by 2030, China's humanoid robot market is expected to reach about 870 billion yuan, and the accelerated industrialization of humanoid robots is expected to open up sufficient market space for precision speed reducers.
On the one hand, favorable policies for precision speed reducers are frequent. On the other hand, industrial speed reducers have been widely used in humanoid robot products. Further improving the functional properties of speed reducers in the future is in line with the development direction of humanoid robots, and precision reducers are expected to continue to benefit from the humanoid robot industry.
Risk warning: Humanoid robots fall short of expectations, technological progress falls short of expectations, risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of raw material price fluctuations.