At present, Honglu Steel has issued a tender for a two-round welding robot to actively promote the intelligent transformation of steel structure welding, and the industry can be expected to expand.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the shortcomings of traditional manual welding methods are prominent, and there is an urgent need for automated transformation in fields such as steel structures and ships, which is expected to spawn a 10 billion welding robot market space. Up to now, Honglu Steel has issued two rounds of teaching-free welding robot tenders, indicating that the product technology is mature and the business model is running smoothly, and the industry can be expected to expand. Focus on Baichu Electronics (688188.SH): the leader in laser cutting control systems. It is optimistic that the new welding business will open up a growth ceiling. It is recommended to focus on Eston (002747.SZ), Eft (688165.SH), etc.
SDIC Securities views are as follows:
The industrialization of intelligent steel structure welding continues to advance, and the industry can be expected to expand.
In April 2024, Honglu Steel successively issued tender notices for robot travel axes, arc welding robot gun cleaners, and robot water-cooled welding guns. The number of tenders was 2,000 sets. This time, Honglu Steel Structure's tender adopted a segmented bidding model. We expect a series of subsequent sub-bidding projects, including visual control systems, welding power supplies, etc., to be implemented. According to industry chain research, at present, steel structure welding mainly solves the process scenario of corner welds. With the gradual breakthroughs in thick plate welding technology such as multi-layer multi-channel welding and full penetration, the industry is expected to move from 1 to N into the nonlinear release stage.
Market space: The demand for welding is huge, and there is a broad market space for machines to replace people.
According to the bank's estimates, the stock market space for long-term steel welding control systems is about 16 billion yuan. At present, welding robots are beginning to expand into the fields of ships, bridges, construction machinery, etc. If the above application scenarios are taken into account, the market space will be larger.
1) Bottom-up: In August 2023, Honglu Steel issued a tender notice for welding robots and tendered 1,500 sets of teach-free welding robots for angle welds. According to industry chain research, angle welds account for about 15% of the steel structure welding process. Due to the non-standard characteristics of steel structures, the intelligent transformation of steel welding was completed when the penetration rate of 80-85% was reached in the welding process. We assume that the penetration rate of long-term welding robots is 80%, then Honglu's total demand for steel welding robots is expected to reach 8,000 units. According to data from the China Steel Structure Association, in 2022, China's steel structure output is 101.4 million tons, and in 2022, Honglu's steel structure output is about 3.5 million tons, so the Honglu steel structure market accounts for less than 5%, that is, the long-term demand for welding robots in the steel structure sector is at least 160,000 units. Based on the calculation of 100,000 yuan for a single welding control system, the long-term steel welding control system market size exceeds 16 billion yuan.
2) From top to bottom: According to data from the China Steel Structure Association, China's steel structure output in 2022 is 101.4 million tons. According to Baichu Electronics Expansion Plan and advanced robots, each steel welder has an annual welding capacity of about 400 tons, corresponding to the annual demand for welders of about 250,000 people. Based on the calculation that a single set of welding robots replaced 1.2-1.3 people, and the penetration rate was 80%, the long-term stock demand for steel welding robots was about 160,000 sets. Based on the calculation of 100,000 yuan for welding control systems, the long-term stock demand for welding control systems is about 16 billion yuan.
Competitive landscape: The industrial chain is making concerted efforts, and industry pioneers are expected to benefit first.
Enterprises in all parts of the steel structure industry chain are speeding up the layout of intelligent welding. According to the division of the industrial chain, downstream steel structure companies include China Construction Steel, Honglu Steel Structure, Bafang Steel Structure, Fuhuang Steel Structure, etc.; welding robot bodies include Xinshida, KUKA, Dazu robots, Kelda, CIMC Femtosecond, Qianjiang robots, Beike robots, Xingjian robots, CLOOS robots, EFT, fixed construction robots, etc.; upstream component companies include Baichu Electronics, Zhixiang Optoelectronics, Microvision Sensing, Megmit, etc. At present, Honglu Steel has issued a tender for a two-round welding robot to actively promote the intelligent transformation of steel structure welding. The industry can be expected to expand, and related layout companies are expected to fully benefit.
Risk warning: The industrialization of welding robots falls short of expectations, the R&D progress of industry chain layermakers falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.