The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that the hollow cup/frameless torque motor market is still small, and the core technology and a large share of the market are occupied by overseas giants. Humanoid robots are expected to open the ceiling of the hollow cup/frameless torque motor market, and domestic motor companies are expected to take advantage of humanoid robot opportunities to gradually overtake curves. Relevant proposals focus on Mingzhi Electric (603728.SH), Dingzhi Technology (873593.BJ), Weichuang Electric (688698.SH), Tuobang Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ), Haozhi Electromechanical (300503.SZ), and Raysai Intelligence (002979.SZ).

Haitong Securities's main views are as follows:

Hollow cup/frameless torque motor height matching humanoid robot

The robot's movements such as walking, running, and bouncing are all generated by the robot's joint motor. As the robot's core hardware, the robot's joint motor directly determines the robot's important performance. Both hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors have the characteristics of compact structure, high output power, and are highly compatible with humanoid robots. A hollow cup motor is a DC brushed or DC brushless motor using hollow cup winding technology, which is highly suitable for dexterous hands; a frameless torque motor is a frameless brushless permanent magnet synchronous motor, suitable for rotating joints and linear joints.

The market for hollow cup/frameless torque motors is still small, and humanoid robots are expected to bring more market space

1) According to Business Research data, in 2022, the global market size of hollow cup DC motors will be approximately US$748 million. According to Haitong Securities estimates, when the sales volume of humanoid robots was 20/50/100/5 million units, the new market size of hollow cup motors was 24/48/72/24 billion yuan, respectively.

2) According to Technavio data, the global torque motor market is estimated at US$612 million in 2022. When the sales volume of humanoid robots was 20/50/100 million units, the new market size of frameless torque motors was 68/117/196/70 billion yuan, respectively. As can be seen, the sales volume of humanoid robots will significantly affect the medium- to long-term market size of hollow cup and frameless torque motors, and the new market size is much higher than at present.

Hollow cup motors: Overseas companies occupy the main market share, and domestic companies are underdeveloped

It is limited by the key technology and process of hollow cup motors. Among them, the core technology is coil design, winding process, and winding equipment. Advanced technology and process equipment have always been monopolized by a few developed countries such as Germany and Switzerland. According to Market Research data, in terms of revenue, CR3 accounted for 55.43% of the global hollow cup motor market share in 2021.

Take maxon, a hollow cup motor faucet, as an example. The company specializes in brushed and brushless DC motors, brushless disc motors, planetary gearboxes, spur gearboxes, special gearboxes, sensors, servo amplifiers, position controllers, high-tech CIM and MIM components, and customer-specific driving solutions, which can provide customers with one-stop solutions. At the same time, maxon has 10 R&D centers, 8 production bases, and sales companies in more than 40 countries around the world to meet customer needs. Many domestic manufacturers, such as Mingzhi Electric, Dingzhi Technology, Tuobang Co., Ltd., and Weichuang Electric, also have hollow cup motor-related layouts, which are expected to fully benefit from the wave of humanoid robots.

Frameless torque motors: overseas companies started early, domestic companies are struggling to catch up

Frameless torque motors have the characteristics of small size, light weight, high power, etc., so they are particularly suitable for integration into mechanical components such as machinery, robot joints, rotating parts, and actuators. They have rich cooperation experience in collaborative robot joints, exoskeletons, medical rehabilitation equipment, etc. Frameless torque motors use a split valve winding design idea, but there are special requirements for some winding machine equipment in the production process. Frameless torque motors usually require customization, and have high requirements for overall installation, fixed process and design.

Overseas manufacturers started early, and process technology has a first-mover advantage

Currently, representative products of frameless motors include TBM (S) frameless torque motors from Colmorgen in the United States, K series frameless servo motors from Parker, S-series high-performance frameless torque motors from Aerotech, and frameless torque motors from Allied Motion. Similarly, take Kol Morgan, the inventor of the frameless torque motor, as an example. It also has extensive technical experience, global layout and customized services are relatively mature, and the first-mover advantage is huge. Domestic companies such as Haozhi Electromechanical have frameless torque motor layouts.

Risk warning: Domestic motor technology progress falls short of expectations, the penetration rate of humanoid robots falls short of expectations, motor production capacity expansion falls short of expectations, deviations in spatial measurement assumptions for hollow cup/frameless torque motors, and increased competition.