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Yadong Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:1795) 26% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 3 18:48

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Yadong Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1795) share price has dived 26% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 17% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, Yadong Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 43.4x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Yadong Group Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:1795 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry April 3rd 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Yadong Group Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Yadong Group Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 31%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 25% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Yadong Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, Yadong Group Holdings' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Yadong Group Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Yadong Group Holdings (2 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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