Everbright Securities lowered the 2024-25 net profit forecast for Australian Excellent (01717) to $272/351 million, respectively.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the Australian Excellent (01717) “increase in holdings” rating, and considering increased competition in the milk powder industry, lowered the 2024-25 net profit forecast to mother of 272/351 million yuan, respectively, and the net profit forecast for the year 26 was 441 million yuan. The company is a leading company among goat milk powder brands, and there is still room for growth in the medium to long term. The company achieved operating income of 7.38 billion yuan in 23, -5.3% year on year; net profit to mother was 170 million yuan, -19.5% year over year.
The bank mentioned that the company's cost pressure and promotions increased, putting pressure on profit margins in '23. (1) The gross margin in '23 was 38.6%, -4.9pcts year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in gross margin was mainly due to the launch of new products and the optimization of product portfolios, increasing the discount promotion of the “Usho” brand; rising prices of raw goat milk; and the continued appreciation of the euro against the RMB, increasing the cost of imported raw materials. (2) The company's sales expense ratio in '23 was 25.8%, -2.0pcts year-on-year, mainly due to the company's cost savings and the consolidated and optimized cost investment of the milk powder division. (3) The company's management expenses rate in '23 was 7.3%, -0.5pcts year on year, and management expenses also decreased by 11.4% year on year. (4) Taken together, the company's net interest rate to mother in 2023 was 2.4%, -0.4 pcts year on year.
Looking ahead to 2024, looking at the industry, 2024 is the Year of the Dragon, the dragon symbolizes good fortune, etc. Looking at previous years, the Year of the Dragon usually had a small peak in fertility. On the business side, the company plans to achieve steady growth in the cow and goat milk powder business. Jiabeite's international business and nutritional products business will maintain rapid development, and performance is expected to improve.