With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37x Shanghai Chemspec Corporation (SHSE:688602) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 30x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Shanghai Chemspec over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Shanghai Chemspec?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Shanghai Chemspec's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 42%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 13% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 39% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Shanghai Chemspec is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Shanghai Chemspec's P/E
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Shanghai Chemspec revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Shanghai Chemspec that we have uncovered.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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