Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Compass Minerals International, Inc. (NYSE:CMP); the share price is down a whopping 77% in the last three years. That would certainly shake our confidence in the decision to own the stock. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 54% in a year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 45% in the last 90 days.
Since Compass Minerals International has shed US$142m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
We know that Compass Minerals International has been profitable in the past. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn't reliably profitable. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
It's quite likely that the declining dividend has caused some investors to sell their shares, pushing the price lower in the process. It doesn't seem like the changes in revenue would have impacted the share price much, but a closer inspection of the data might reveal something.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Compass Minerals International in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Compass Minerals International shareholders are down 52% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 32%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Compass Minerals International better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Compass Minerals International is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.