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Earnings Growth of 1.1% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical (SZSE:002390) Shareholders

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 26 01:25

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. Long term Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002390) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. Unfortunately, they have held through a 56% decline in the share price in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 24% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 14% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.5% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

With a rather small yield of just 1.6% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002390 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 26th 2024

Take a more thorough look at Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 14% in the twelve months, Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical shareholders did even worse, losing 23% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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