Driven by PV installed demand and module production schedules exceeding expectations, photovoltaic glass industry inventories are falling rapidly, and supply and demand tend to be tight
On March 25, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January-February.
By the end of February, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 2.97 billion kilowatts, an increase of 14.7% over the previous year. From January to February 2024, the new PV installed capacity was 36.72 million kilowatts, an increase of 80% over the previous year.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that in the future, drawing on the global PV market-based development, it is expected that the red line of consumption will gradually be loosened, the space for PV demand will open up drastically, and PV is expected to usher in a new upward cycle.
CITIC Securities released a research report saying that due to factors such as production capacity index policy restrictions, the photovoltaic glass industry's expansion rate has clearly slowed since 2023, and the subsequent production capacity growth rate is expected to remain steady. Driven by PV installation demand and module production schedules exceeding expectations, the photovoltaic glass industry's inventory has declined rapidly, and supply and demand tend to be tight. It is expected to benefit from falling costs and rising prices in the future, leading to a sharp rise in profit.
Stimulated by a sharp drop in industrial chain costs and increased policy support from various countries, CITIC Securities expects the global PV installed capacity to increase to about 500/600 GW in 2024/25, or corresponding to the shipment of about 650/780 GW modules. At the same time, the rapid penetration of N-type technology has accelerated the share of dual-glass module applications to nearly 70%, further driving the demand for photovoltaic glass.
Currently, the photovoltaic glass industry has a production capacity of about 100,000 tons/day or can only meet the rigid production demand for modules of about 55 GW/month, and the balance between supply and demand is weak. As the increase in downstream module production schedule exceeds expectations, 2024Q1 photovoltaic glass inventory rapidly declines. CITIC Securities estimates that photovoltaic glass may be short in production capacity starting in 24Q2. The supply and demand pattern will clearly tighten, and prices may enter an upward cycle.
Conceptual enterprises related to the photovoltaic industry chain:
Photovoltaic silicon materials: GCL Technology (03800), Xinte Energy (01799)
Photovoltaic glass: Xinyi Solar (00968), Follett Glass (06865)