The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that the market has underestimated the importance of liquid cooling and cooling in AI computing power. In the Nvidia B100 era, air cooling will gradually approach the limit, and the liquid cooling era will begin; for domestic computing power, shortcomings in semiconductor processes require heat dissipation to supplement it, and domestic and foreign demand for liquid cooling is expected to resonate. The bank believes that the process of liquid cooling from “optional” to “required” will greatly increase market space and become an important segment for computing power.

Investment suggestions: In summary, the preferred liquid cooling quality companies should focus on the integrity of the industrial chain layout, R&D investment intensity, and accumulation of experience in actual process technology. The investment value is distributed along with the pattern to form a “one strong N many” structure. As a leading traditional cooling white horse company, Invec has strong comparative advantages, and rising stars are expected to benefit from the overall development trend of the liquid cooling industry.

Liquid cooling system solution manufacturer

Core recommendation: Invico (002837.SZ);

Recommended attention: Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH), Feirongda (300602.SZ), Gaolan Co., Ltd. (300499.SZ), Shenling Environmental (301018.SZ), Tongfei Co., Ltd. (300990.SZ), etc.

Guosheng Securities's views are as follows:

Judging from the technical route, cold plate indirect liquid cooling is expected to be promoted before direct liquid cooling.

Liquid cooling systems can be divided into direct liquid cooling and indirect liquid cooling according to the contact method between liquid and hardware. Direct cooling includes immersion type and spray type, and indirect cooling is mainly cold plate type. The cold plate liquid cooling technology is mature. There is no need to change the shape of existing servers. The processing difficulty is low, the cost is low, and the cooling power consumption can meet the needs of AI servers, and it is expected to be promoted first.

Cold plate liquid cooling systems have the characteristics of multiple chain complexity, and the value is mainly concentrated on customized core components.

The main components of a typical cold plate liquid cooling system include cold plates, heat exchangers, piping, coolant, control systems, etc. The closer to the heat source, the more difficult the technology and process. Judging from the value, parts with customizable capabilities are usually more valuable, such as cold plates and quick connectors, which need to be customized according to the model and chip, and are widely used in data centers, and the overall value is high; in addition, the CDU has heat exchange capabilities on the primary side and the secondary side, and is also one of the key components in liquid cooling systems.

Two major marginal changes are driving both the position and space of liquid cooling to rise.

On the one hand, with the development of AIDC, the demand for high-density computing power of large models continues to rise, and the thermal density of computing power chips, computing power equipment, and data center cabinets will all increase significantly. The upper limit of traditional air-cooled cooling power consumption cannot meet AI server requirements, and liquid cooling has become a “immediate requirement”; on the other hand, the industry's own demand for liquid cooling technology has gradually become a dominant factor, driving the development of liquid cooling technology not only due to policy and PUE considerations, but also due to the data center's own urgent demand for efficient cooling solutions.

The penetration rate of liquid cooling in traditional data centers is progressing steadily, AIGC is increasing new demand, and the market space is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan.

The liquid cooling market space structure can be divided into two major categories according to increment and stock. The incremental space is brought about by AIGC's large model training. The stock space is brought about by traditional general computing power to further reduce PUE requirements and gradually increase liquid cooling penetration rate. The liquid cooling market space can be predicted separately from the two major directions. After adding up the statistics, the market space for liquid cooling for AI servers is expected to exceed 16 billion dollars in 2025, and the market space for liquid cooling for general purpose servers is expected to exceed 4.4 billion in 2025.

Looking at the future, decoupling and cost performance are the keys to promotion. Preferred liquid cooling companies can start from the three competitive perspectives.

The popularization and promotion of liquid cooling solutions has different core choices in each of the three segments. In terms of technology, decoupling delivery is the core path for liquid cooling to break away from the strong binding relationship of servers. The reversal of cost performance is a key point in promoting the popularity of liquid cooling. In the liquid cooling industry, high-quality enterprises focus on the three major competitiveness of full-chain capabilities, R&D experience, and R&D capital.

Risk warning: domestic computing power progress falls short of expectations, AIDC development falls short of expectations, technological innovation risks, market size measurement risks