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What NOVA Technology Corporation Limited's (SZSE:300921) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 25 18:22

NOVA Technology Corporation Limited (SZSE:300921) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 2.4% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, NOVA Technology may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 5.4x, since almost half of all companies in the Telecom in China have P/S ratios under 4.5x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:300921 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 25th 2024

How NOVA Technology Has Been Performing

NOVA Technology has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance is strong enough to outperform the industry, which has inflated the P/S ratio. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on NOVA Technology's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as NOVA Technology's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.7%. Revenue has also lifted 16% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that NOVA Technology's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The large bounce in NOVA Technology's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that NOVA Technology currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 5 warning signs for NOVA Technology (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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