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There's Reason For Concern Over Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600538) Massive 26% Price Jump

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 21 18:43

Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600538) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 4.1% isn't as impressive.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 6.2x, considering almost half the companies in China's Chemicals industry have P/S ratios below 2.2x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600538 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 21st 2024

How Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 62% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological's P/S?

Shares in Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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