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Improved Revenues Required Before China Security Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600654) Stock's 30% Jump Looks Justified

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 21 03:36

China Security Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600654) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 30% after a shaky period beforehand. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 8.5% isn't as impressive.

Even after such a large jump in price, China Security may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3x, since almost half of all companies in the Electronic industry in China have P/S ratios greater than 4.2x and even P/S higher than 8x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600654 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 21st 2024

How China Security Has Been Performing

The revenue growth achieved at China Security over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think this respectable revenue growth might actually underperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on China Security will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is China Security's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as China Security's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 13% last year. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 12% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we are not surprised that China Security is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.

What We Can Learn From China Security's P/S?

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift China Security's P/S close to the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of China Security revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for China Security that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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