On March 15, JPM updated a research report, downgraded Futu to neutral rating with a $62 price target. JPM believes the current price is fair and upside is limited until Futu shows a solid record of monetizing overseas expansion and product diversification.
JPM pointed out the key takeaways:
Interest income is likely to drag revenue growth in 2024 on the back of Fed rate cuts.
Benefits from declining client acquisition costs (CAC) may be partly offset by rising head count and other infrastructure costs for new markets.
While paying client growth is accelerating in 2024, AUM per client may be low for clients in new markets, dragging overall AUM growth.
Still, JPM noted some financial report highlights:
Management guided 350k new paying clients growth in 2024 (vs 220k in 2023) and expects new markets (Japan, Malaysia, Canada) will drive the incremental growth.
Management disclosed Futu has attracted more paying clients and net asset inflows in the first two months of 2024 than in the entire 4Q23, and trading turnover also recovered in 1Q24.
In addition, management guided client acquisition cost to decrease 10- 20% y/y from 2023 levels (i.e., ~HK$3,200) and expects head count to grow by mid- to high-single-digit in 2024.
Futu's Singapore subsidiary achieved break-even in 4Q23. Futu also announced a share repurchase program of US $500mn (~6% of Futu's market cap as of 14 March 2024).