One thing we could say about the analysts on Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000001) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Ping An Bank's 25 analysts is for revenues of CN¥160b in 2024, which would reflect a huge 47% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to be CN¥2.39, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥177b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.68 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Ping An Bank's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥12.75 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ping An Bank's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 47% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ping An Bank to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Ping An Bank.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ping An Bank analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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