Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Broadwind, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BWEN) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.
Examining Cashflow Against Broadwind's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Broadwind recorded an accrual ratio of 0.39. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of US$13m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of US$7.65m. We saw that FCF was US$14m a year ago though, so Broadwind has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. The good news for shareholders is that Broadwind's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Broadwind's Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Broadwind didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Broadwind's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. The good news is that it earned a profit in the last twelve months, despite its previous loss. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Be aware that Broadwind is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those are significant...
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Broadwind's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.