The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to a research report released by Capital Securities, according to the Ministry of Transport, more than 8.4 billion people traveled in 40 days during the Spring Festival travel season (1.26-3.5), a record high; the number of travelers was +182% compared to the same period in 2019, and +77% compared to the same period in 2023. The 2024 Spring Festival travel season, which is the hottest in history, has boosted the popularity of the transportation industry. Demand for air travel and ticket prices have both recovered, and with the increase in the number of visa-free countries in China, it is expected that after further restoration of international routes, aircraft utilization and ticket prices will increase, further restoring airline profits. Furthermore, as airport passenger traffic recovers, it will consolidate aviation revenue and increase the growth of inbound and outbound visitors to and from non-airline tax-free revenue.

Recommended targets: Spring Airlines (601021.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), Air China (), China Eastern Airlines (Dubai), Shanghai Airport (Sichuan), Baiyun Airport (Airport), Shenzhen Airport (000089.SZ). 601111.SH 600115.SH 600009.SH 600004.SH

The views of Capital Securities are as follows:

The number of travelers during the 2024 Spring Festival travel season exceeded 8.4 billion, and the increase in the number of self-driving tourists reflected a structural adjustment in travel methods.

According to the Ministry of Transport, more than 8.4 billion people traveled in 40 days during the Spring Festival travel season (1.26-3.5), a record high; the number of travelers was +182% compared to the same period in 2019, and +77% compared to the same period in 2023. Among them, railway passenger traffic is expected to reach 480 million; road passenger traffic is expected to complete 7.83 billion, of which the number of non-commercial passenger passenger trips on highways and national and provincial highways is expected to complete 6.72 billion, accounting for about 80% of the cross-regional passenger traffic of the whole society; road commercial passenger traffic is expected to reach 1.11 billion; waterway passenger traffic is expected to complete 29 million passengers; and civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to complete 83 million passengers.

“Family visit+travel” is driving the second wave of travel, and domestic travel and outbound travel are working together to drive the volume and price of air travel to rise sharply.

In terms of civil aviation, indicators such as the total number of passengers carried by civil aviation during the Spring Festival travel season and 2.249 million passengers per day during the Spring Festival holiday season all reached record highs. Domestic “north-south” routes are popular, while international/regional routes are popular for travel between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Northeast Asia, and Southeast Asia. Overall, however, air fares showed the characteristics of “peak season” during the Spring Festival travel season. The average ticket price reached 836 yuan, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year, which is basically the same as the 2019 Spring Festival travel season.

High-speed rail network operation has helped passenger transportation capacity reach new heights.

Railways across the country sent 484 million passengers, an average of 1.089 million passengers per day, an increase of 39% over the same period in 2019, an increase of 18.8% over the same period in 2019. Of these, 16.67 million passengers were sent on February 17, setting a record high in the number of passengers sent in a single day during the Spring Festival travel season. In terms of freight, China-Europe trains operated a total of 2001 trains and sent 215,000 TEUs, an increase of 11% and 12%, respectively, over the previous year.

The development of road networks has promoted self-driving tours as a new growth point.

The number of people traveling on roads during the 2024 Spring Festival travel season is expected to be 7.83 billion, of which 6.72 billion people travel on highways and non-commercial passenger cars on ordinary national and provincial highways, accounting for about 80% of the cross-regional traffic of the whole society. 2024 Spring Festival travel data shows structural changes in transportation methods. Self-driving travel has become a new growth point for travel, benefiting from the fact that China already has the largest high-speed rail network and highway network in the world.

Risk warning: changes in overseas entry and exit policies, large exchange rate fluctuations, economic recovery falling short of expectations, etc.