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Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited's (HKG:8223) 28% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 10 20:03

The Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited (HKG:8223) share price has softened a substantial 28% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Longer-term, the stock has been solid despite a difficult 30 days, gaining 14% in the last year.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 42.7x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 4x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:8223 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry March 11th 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 54% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen a 18% overall rise in EPS, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 5 warning signs for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (3 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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