There's been a notable change in appetite for Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 10% to US$5.48. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 2.0%to hit US$713m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vivid Seats

After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Vivid Seats are now predicting revenues of US$822.4m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 40% to US$0.31 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$822.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.7% to US$9.92, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Vivid Seats analyst has a price target of US$15.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Vivid Seats' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 15% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 53% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vivid Seats is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Vivid Seats' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Vivid Seats analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Vivid Seats that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.