Jinwu Financial News | According to BOC International Development Research Report, the total revenue of JD Logistics (02618) increased 10% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Exceeding expectations was mainly due to an increase in internal order revenue, and external revenue was in line with expectations. Profit significantly exceeded the forecast by 124%, and the adjusted net profit/profit margin increased by 80% /1.5 percentage points year-on-year, thanks to continuous optimization of the business structure and improvement in operational efficiency.
According to the bank, in the fourth quarter, domestic orders increased 11% year on year (+8% compared to the 3rd quarter), thanks to JD Retail's adjustment of the free shipping threshold, which continued to drive business volume. Revenue from external integration increased 5% year on year, mainly driven by the increase in average revenue per customer. The number of customers rebounded month-on-month but still declined year-on-year. The number of customers is expected to gradually return to positive growth in 2024, and single customer revenue will grow in single digits.
The bank expects revenue growth of 8% in 2024 (previously 11%) and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.0% (1.7% -2% as per management guidance, compared to 1.5-2.5% previously). The visibility of the return of the company's core business external integrated supply chain revenue to double-digit growth is unclear. The bank believes that the company's valuation level should be closer to the industry average, reduce the price-earnings ratio in 2024 from 18 times to 15 times, and reduce the target price from HK$11.6 to HK$9.5, corresponding to a 17% increase in stock price.