It's been a mediocre week for NeuroPace, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 16% to US$13.98 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenue hit US$65m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$1.27 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NeuroPace after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from NeuroPace's seven analysts is for revenues of US$75.3m in 2024. This reflects a meaningful 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$1.16. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$74.9m and US$1.30 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a notable improvement in losses per share in particular.
These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 8.7% to US$16.00, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for NeuroPace. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on NeuroPace, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the NeuroPace's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that NeuroPace's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.8% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NeuroPace to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NeuroPace going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for NeuroPace that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.