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TransUnion's (NYSE:TRU) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 7 06:42

TransUnion's (NYSE:TRU) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 4x may look like a poor investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Professional Services industry in the United States have P/S ratios below 1.5x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:TRU Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 7th 2024

What Does TransUnion's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times haven't been great for TransUnion as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to undergo a reversal of fortunes, which has elevated the P/S ratio. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on TransUnion will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like TransUnion's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 3.3%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 51% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 7.9% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 7.1% per year growth forecast for the broader industry.

In light of this, it's curious that TransUnion's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On TransUnion's P/S

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Analysts are forecasting TransUnion's revenues to only grow on par with the rest of the industry, which has lead to the high P/S ratio being unexpected. The fact that the revenue figures aren't setting the world alight has us doubtful that the company's elevated P/S can be sustainable for the long term. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for TransUnion that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on TransUnion, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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