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DongFeng Automobile Co. LTD's (SHSE:600006) 34% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 6 19:06

DongFeng Automobile Co. LTD (SHSE:600006) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 34% after a shaky period beforehand. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that DongFeng Automobile's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Auto industry in China, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600006 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 7th 2024

How Has DongFeng Automobile Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at DongFeng Automobile over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on DongFeng Automobile's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For DongFeng Automobile?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like DongFeng Automobile's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 1.9%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 11% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 65% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that DongFeng Automobile's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On DongFeng Automobile's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now DongFeng Automobile's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that DongFeng Automobile currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for DongFeng Automobile you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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