Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Offcn Education Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002607); the share price is down a whopping 90% in the last three years. That'd be enough to cause even the strongest minds some disquiet. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 39% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 34% in the last three months. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
Since Offcn Education Technology has shed CN¥2.3b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Because Offcn Education Technology made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over the last three years, Offcn Education Technology's revenue dropped 43% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. And as you might expect the share price has been weak too, dropping at a rate of 24% per year. We prefer leave it to clowns to try to catch falling knives, like this stock. There is a good reason that investors often describe buying a sharply falling stock price as 'trying to catch a falling knife'. Think about it.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. If you are thinking of buying or selling Offcn Education Technology stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 16% in the twelve months, Offcn Education Technology shareholders did even worse, losing 39%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Offcn Education Technology , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
We will like Offcn Education Technology better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.