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The Five-year Decline in Earnings Might Be Taking Its Toll on Kunlun Energy (HKG:135) Shareholders as Stock Falls 5.5% Over the Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 5 18:46

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more -- or less -- than that. The Kunlun Energy Company Limited (HKG:135) stock price is down 24% over five years, but the total shareholder return is 34% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 14% over the same time. On top of that, the share price is down 5.5% in the last week.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Kunlun Energy isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Looking back five years, both Kunlun Energy's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 1.1% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 5% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 10.02.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:135 Earnings Per Share Growth March 5th 2024

We know that Kunlun Energy has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Kunlun Energy stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Kunlun Energy's TSR for the last 5 years was 34%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Kunlun Energy has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 3.0% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. However, that falls short of the 6% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Kunlun Energy is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

But note: Kunlun Energy may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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