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NovoCure (NASDAQ:NVCR) Adds US$145m to Market Cap in the Past 7 Days, Though Investors From Three Years Ago Are Still Down 87%

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 4 07:43

NovoCure Limited (NASDAQ:NVCR) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 27% in the last quarter. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. To wit, the share price sky-dived 87% in that time. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. Of course the real question is whether the business can sustain a turnaround. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

Given that NovoCure didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Over the last three years, NovoCure's revenue dropped 1.0% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 23% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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NasdaqGS:NVCR Earnings and Revenue Growth March 4th 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for NovoCure in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

Investors in NovoCure had a tough year, with a total loss of 79%, against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NovoCure better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for NovoCure you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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