Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603650) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 16% over that time.
Following the firm bounce in price, Red Avenue New Materials Group may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 42x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 30x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Red Avenue New Materials Group has been doing quite well of late. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Red Avenue New Materials Group's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Red Avenue New Materials Group's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 43% last year. The latest three year period has also seen a 21% overall rise in EPS, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 18% during the coming year according to the four analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 41% growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it concerning that Red Avenue New Materials Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Red Avenue New Materials Group's P/E
Red Avenue New Materials Group's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Red Avenue New Materials Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Having said that, be aware Red Avenue New Materials Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Red Avenue New Materials Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.