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Investors More Bullish on People.cn (SHSE:603000) This Week as Stock Jumps 12%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 2 19:14

It hasn't been the best quarter for People.cn CO., LTD (SHSE:603000) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 16% in that time. But over three years, the returns would have left most investors smiling In the last three years the share price is up, 68%: better than the market.

Since the stock has added CN¥3.5b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the last three years, People.cn failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 9.3% (annualized).

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Languishing at just 0.6%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. You can only imagine how long term shareholders feel about the declining revenue trend (slipping at 2.7% per year). What's clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren't matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:603000 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 3rd 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on People.cn's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of People.cn, it has a TSR of 72% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that People.cn has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 55% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 3% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand People.cn better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for People.cn that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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