Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NYSE:DFH) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. The stock price has risen 8.9% to US$38.54 over the past week, suggesting investors are becoming more optimistic. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?
After the upgrade, the two analysts covering Dream Finders Homes are now predicting revenues of US$4.3b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 16% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to accumulate 7.2% to US$3.40. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.85 in 2024. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Dream Finders Homes 10% to US$26.50 on the back of these upgrades.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Dream Finders Homes' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 39% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Dream Finders Homes' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at Dream Finders Homes.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for Dream Finders Homes going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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