It's been a good week for Darling Ingredients Inc. (NYSE:DAR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.2% to US$43.67. Revenues of US$6.8b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$3.99, missing estimates by 5.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from twelve analysts covering Darling Ingredients is for revenues of US$6.35b in 2024. This implies a small 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 17% to US$3.38 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.76b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.13 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$66.18 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Darling Ingredients at US$120 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$42.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Darling Ingredients' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Darling Ingredients. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Darling Ingredients going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Darling Ingredients that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.