It's been a good week for ICU Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICUI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$109. ICU Medical reported revenues of US$2.3b, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$1.23 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following last week's earnings report, ICU Medical's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$2.29b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.18 in 2024. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$142, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ICU Medical at US$161 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$135. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ICU Medical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ICU Medical.
The Bottom Line
The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for ICU Medical dropped from profits to a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ICU Medical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$142, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ICU Medical analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that ICU Medical is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.