Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Republic Services reported US$15b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.47 beat expectations, being 2.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Republic Services from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$16.2b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 8.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 7.9% to US$5.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.89 in 2024. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.
The analysts increased their price target 10% to US$191, perhaps signalling that higher revenues are a strong leading indicator for Republic Services's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Republic Services at US$213 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$143. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Republic Services' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Republic Services'historical trends, as the 8.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 8.9% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.6% per year. It's clear that while Republic Services' revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Republic Services. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Republic Services going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Republic Services is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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