Shareholders might have noticed that Jamf Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:JAMF) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.0% to US$17.99 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$561m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.88 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Jamf Holding are now predicting revenues of US$617.3m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$0.58. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$641.0m and US$0.80 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, Jamf Holding'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very favorable reduction to the loss per share forecasts in particular.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$22.88, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Jamf Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$18.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Jamf Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Jamf Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jamf Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jamf Holding analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Jamf Holding is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.