The yearly results for ICF International, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICFI) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.1% to hit US$4.35 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following the latest results, ICF International's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.07b in 2024. This would be a credible 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 21% to US$5.30. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.36 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 11% to US$167despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of ICF International's earnings by assigning a price premium. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ICF International at US$187 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$145. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ICF International is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that ICF International's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while ICF International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for ICF International going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for ICF International you should be aware of.
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