Shareholders of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXON) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 17% to US$309 following its latest annual results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Axon Enterprise surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.31 per share, a notable 13% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Axon Enterprise's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$1.93b in 2024. This reflects a substantial 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 10% to US$2.57. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.61 in 2024. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.
The consensus price target increased 17% to US$309, with an improved revenue forecast carrying the promise of a more valuable business, in time. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Axon Enterprise, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$339 and the most bearish at US$254 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Axon Enterprise's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 26% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.5% annually. So although Axon Enterprise is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Axon Enterprise analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Axon Enterprise you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.