Analyst Edward White of H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Valneva (VALN – Research Report), with a price target of $26.00.
Edward White has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors related to Valneva’s promising prospects in vaccine development. The recent recommendation by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for Valneva’s single-shot chikungunya vaccine, Ixchiq, signifies a substantial endorsement for its use in travelers and certain professionals, indicating a clear path to market penetration. Additionally, the accelerated approval granted by the FDA and the potential for further approvals from international regulatory bodies such as EMA and Health Canada bolster confidence in the vaccine’s future success. The expected global market for chikungunya vaccines surpasses $500 million by 2032, and Valneva’s early launch plans in the U.S. further enhance the company’s revenue prospects.
White’s $26 price target rests on projected revenues, adjusted royalty estimates, and cash forecasts. The valuation incorporates a net present value analysis of revenue through 2028, assigning a 100% probability of success (POS) for Ixchiq and applying a price/sales multiple that aligns with industry standards. A similar but conservative POS and multiple are applied for VLA15, Valneva’s candidate for Lyme disease. Despite the acknowledgement of several risks, including commercial and regulatory challenges, the anticipated revenue growth for Ixchiq and VLA15 by 2028 underpins the optimistic outlook on Valneva’s stock.
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Valneva (VALN) Company Description:
Valneva SE is a vaccine company focused on developing life-saving vaccines. Its portfolio includes two vaccines for travellers; one for the prevention of Japanese encephalitis (IXIARO) and the second (DUKORAL) for the prevention of cholera and diarrhoea. The segments of the group are Commercialized vaccines which relate to marketed vaccines, the group’s vaccines IXIARO/JESPECT, DUKORAL, and third-party products; Vaccine candidates which relate to research and development programs to generate new approvable products to generate future cash flows from product sales through partnering with pharmaceutical companies; and Technologies and services which relates to services and inventions at a commercialization stage. The group is based in France and operates internationally.
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