Gold Bull Peter Schiff Warns US Q4 Growth Is Really 'A Credit Bubble' Amid $834B Surge In National Debt
Gold Bull Peter Schiff Warns US Q4 Growth Is Really 'A Credit Bubble' Amid $834B Surge In National Debt
Revised estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the U.S. economy grew at a robust pace in the fourth quarter. However, economist Peter Schiff remains skeptical about the quality of this growth.
經濟分析局發佈的修訂估計顯示，美國經濟在第四季度以強勁的速度增長。但是，經濟學家彼得·希夫仍然對這種增長的質量持懷疑態度。
What Happened: According to Schiff, citing data from the BEA, annualized nominal GDP rose by $334 billion year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Despite this apparent growth, Schiff pointed out that the national debt increased by over $834 billion during the same period, more than double the GDP growth.
發生了什麼：希夫援引東亞銀行的數據稱，第四季度年化名義GDP同比增長3340億美元。儘管出現了明顯的增長，但希夫指出，同期國民債務增加了超過8,340億美元，是國內生產總值增長的兩倍多。
Schiff emphasized that this debt doesn't even include changes in consumer credit levels during the same period.
希夫強調，這筆債務甚至不包括同期消費者信貸水平的變化。
"This isn't economic growth. It's a credit bubble," he said.
“這不是經濟增長。這是信貸泡沫，” 他說。
According to the Govt., U.S. #GDP "grew" by $334 billion In Q4. Yet during that same quarter the #NationalDebt rose by over $834 billion, or 2.5x as much. That doesn't even count the growth in debt that consumers took on directly. This isn't economic growth. It's a credit bubble.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 28, 2024
根據政府的說法，美國 #GDP 在第四季度 “增長” 了3340億美元。然而，在同一季度，#NationalDebt 增長了超過8,340億美元，增長了2.5倍。這甚至還不包括消費者直接承擔的債務的增長。這不是經濟增長。這是信貸泡沫。
— 彼得·希夫 (@PeterSchiff) 2024 年 2 月 28 日
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Why It Matters: Proponents of Bidenomics argue that the current administration's policies have helped the economy recover from the COVID-19-induced downturn in 2020. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5.8% in 2021 after contracting by 2.2% in 2020, largely due to COVID-19 stimulus measures. However, growth moderated to 1.9% before picking up to 2.5% in 2023, amid rising interest rates and inflation.
爲何重要：Bidenomics的支持者認爲，現任政府的政策已幫助經濟在2020年從COVID-19引發的衰退中復甦。實際國內生產總值增長在2020年收縮了2.2％之後，在2021年加速至5.8％，這主要是由於 COVID-19 的刺激措施。然而，在利率和通貨膨脹率上升的情況下，增長放緩至1.9％，然後在2023年回升至2.5％。
As Schiff highlighted, the national debt has been increasing rapidly, driven by unsustainable spending. The interest on the debt is now estimated to exceed spending on military or other major items, except Social Security or the Department of Health and Human Services.
正如希夫所強調的那樣，在不可持續支出的推動下，國民債務一直在迅速增加。據估計，債務利息將超過軍事或其他主要項目的支出，社會保障或衛生與公共服務部除外。
Despite resilient consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, U.S. consumers have been living beyond their means. Outstanding U.S. consumer credit stood at $5.01 trillion in December, with revolving credit tied to credit cards climbing to $1.31 trillion.
儘管消費者支出彈性強，推動了約三分之二的經濟活動，但美國消費者一直過着無法承受的生活。12月，美國未償還的消費者信貸爲5.01萬億美元，與信用卡掛鉤的循環信貸攀升至1.31萬億美元。
While some analysts, such as Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, are optimistic about continued accelerated growth due to technological innovation, others, like Schiff, remain cautious about the sustainability of the current economic trajectory.
儘管一些分析師，例如方舟投資創始人凱西·伍德，對技術創新帶來的持續加速增長持樂觀態度，但其他分析師，例如希夫，對當前經濟軌跡的可持續性仍持謹慎態度。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the broader S&P 500 Index, ended Wednesday's session down 0.10% to $505.76, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根據Benzinga Pro的數據，追蹤更廣泛的標準普爾500指數表現的交易所交易基金SPDR標準普爾500指數信託基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）週三收盤下跌0.10％，至505.76美元。
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