It's been a good week for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE:MLM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.8% to US$553. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$6.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$18.82 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Martin Marietta Materials is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Martin Marietta Materials after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Martin Marietta Materials' 19 analysts is for revenues of US$7.02b in 2024. This reflects a credible 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.3% to US$21.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.98b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$21.04 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$575, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Martin Marietta Materials at US$642 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$350. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Martin Marietta Materials' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Martin Marietta Materials.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Martin Marietta Materials' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Martin Marietta Materials analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Martin Marietta Materials is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.